Tuesday, June 06, 2006

Telstra Update - Continue to Hold

7/6/06 Telstra Update

Expected dividends .14 cents a half

Share price 6/06/06 3.82

Return 7.3% plus franking = 8.4% net return

Super fund average price 4.70 return is 5.96% or 6.85% net. Still an excellent return.

Current return = $4,000 on 10,000 shares, Net is $4,600 or a 9.8% return.

Therefore, ignoring the decline in the Telstra share price is easy when comparing the return with risk free bank return of around 5.5% pre tax or 4.78% after super tax.

The other reason is ignore the price decline is that prior to the sale of the Telstra and in competitive fairness the regulatory stance weighing on Telstra is likely to be diminished. Telstra continue to sign up more broadband users than any other Australian telco and at some stage these factors should combine to increase the share price of Telstra.

Investors must believe that Telstra will lower it’s dividend to about 11 cents a half, 22 cents annually to account for the current share price. I.e. they are pricing in a 22 cent dividend or about a 6% return.

Conclusion: Continue to hold Telstra.

MMC Contrarian Limited Analysis

MMA

MMC Contrarian Limited

Original Analysis 06/06/06

Original Micro Thesis. 1

NTA Updates. 1

NTA Analysis. 2

History. 2

Investment fees. 2

Price ranges. 3

Acceptable aims to judge performance against 3

Dividends. 4

Original Micro Thesis

Investment Portfolio

As at 30 April 2005 MMC's portfolio was comprised of Listed Equities (37%), Hybrids (4%) and Fixed Interest and Cash (59%).


May (M)


Equities

97

47%

Hybrids

8

3%

Fixed Interest and Cash

133

56%

Total

238


Intelligent investor rates as buy and thinks highly of management team.

Number of shares on issue 31/3/06, 216M with NTA of 112.1 cents (pre tax).

At 91.5cents this represents an 18% discount to NTA.

Recommend buying small starting position, compiling full analysis. If analysis returns good risk reward scenario aim will be to build eventual position of between 10-20% of the funds assets.

As MMC have such a high proportion of funds, 59%, in cash they should be buffeted from any market downturn and if such downturn occurs they will be in a strong position to profit from it.

This is an excellently run investment fund, trading at NTA discount of 17.5% and will instantly give the fund exposure to range of ASX listed companies.

NTA Updates

30 April 2006 – 110.9, order placed at 91.5 for 17.5 discount.

Cash has decreased from 147 144 in March to 133 now. Was this 14M used to pay dividend on 23rd March 2006? 216M shares * 3 cents = 6.48M, so where has other gone. Check transaction over April and May. Perhaps they have used funds to buy back shares.

s

Check next quarterly update after end of June.


31/1203

30/06/2004

31/12/2004

30/06/2005

31/12/2005

31/03/2006

Equities

13

74

92

98

85

94

Hybrids

0

15

24

8

6

6

Cash

185

122

123

134

156

144

Total Cap

198

211

239

240

247

244

NTA per







Before tax on unrealised gains

99.1

105.4

115.2

109.7

112.4

112.1

Dividends (cumulative)

0

0

1

2.5

4.5

7.5

Before tax on unrealised gains pre dividends

99.1

105.4

116.2

112.2

116.9

119.6

Share price

93

97

706

93.5

94.5

93

NTA Analysis.

Market Cap = 216M shares*.915 first buy price = 197.64M

Minus cash of 133 = 65M

So in effect you are getting $105M of shares of hybrids for 65M, a 38% discount.

History

MMC Contrarian is an investment company listed on the Australian Stock Exchanges (ASX) which primarily invests in other ASX listed securities. The Company was founded in December 2003 raising $200 million of capital from approximately 8,000 investors. The Company also issued 200 million options as part of the initial public offer, with an exercise price of $1.00 exercisable by 30 June 2005.


Investment fees

Management Fee

The Manager will receive a management fee equivalent to 1.25% per annum of gross assets of the Company, calculated and payable monthly in arrears by the Company.

Performance Fee

Where the Portfolio has increased in value over a 12 month performance calculation period, the Manager will also be entitled to a performance fee of 15% of:

  • where the level of the All Ordinaries Accumulation Index has increased over that period, the amount by which the value of the Portfolio exceeds this increase; or
  • where the All Ordinaries Accumulation Index has decreased over that period, the amount of the increase in the value of the Portfolio.

The total management expense ratio (MER) of the company including the management fee is anticipated to be approximately 1.5% per annum, excluding any performance fee.

1.5% of 238M is 3.57M a year or 300k a month. In management fees.

Price ranges

Argo Investments recently had a NTA of 1.30 and the lowest I can envisage MMC hitting is .80. Current shares 216M

The following price ranges are complied on spreadsheet and are based on 20% +/- equities and decreasing cash. We believe this to be a realistic conservative model and as highlighted in dividends section we will happily collect a 7.5% Net return while waiting for either or both of assets or NTA to improve.

NTA/
Assets

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

210

0.78

0.83

0.87

0.92

0.97

1.02

1.07

1.12

1.17

220

0.82

0.87

0.92

0.97

1.02

1.07

1.12

1.17

1.22

238

0.88

0.94

0.99

1.05

1.10

1.16

1.21

1.27

1.32

245

0.91

0.96

1.02

1.08

1.13

1.19

1.25

1.30

1.36

257

0.95

1.01

1.07

1.13

1.19

1.25

1.31

1.37

1.43

From my analysis and based on my predictions we have bought at the lower end of the NTA. There appears to be very little downside risk as it would take a 40% market decline to reduce the assets to 210M. This large market decline would cause a fall of only 15%.

Acceptable aims to judge performance against

Over long term on any position a 11% return is acceptable, a 15% return very good and a 20% exception. For MMC we target a 11-15% yearly increase, but will not be concerned about near term (less than 3 year) losses.

The primary reason for this table is to emphasis the long term nature of our holding and remove concerns caused by wasting time at share price watching. That is in 5 years time we hope the share price will be between 105 and 130 cents and we will have received 40.25 in dividends which will have provided a compounded net return of 46.35 cents for a total return of between 60 – 85 cents or 66 – 93%.

Returns

1.11


1.15


91.5

Div Paid

91.5

Year 1

94.67

6.9

98.33

Year 2

97.60

7.5

105.60

Year 3

100.29

8.1

113.39

Year 4

102.70

8.6

121.77

Year 5

104.79

9.2

130.84



40.25


Dividends

Management have predicted an end of year dividend fully franked of more than last year’s 2 cents. The last dividend was 3 cents and that is what we anticipate for the near future. A 3 cent dividend is worth 3.45 to the super fund.

At 91.5 cents this represents a Net 7.5% annual return.

Declared

Paid

Amount


30/06/04


1


31/12/04


1.5


30/06/05


2


31/12/05

23/03/06

3










Conclusion

Continue to buy MMA opportunistically over the next six months with maximum allocation set at 20% of fund or roughly 26k, about 28k shares. Any purchases in more than one month should have further NTA analysis using updated figures from June NTA.

Before committing greater than 10% of funds a further deeper analysis should be performed in to all facets of the company.

Monday, June 05, 2006

MMC Contrarian Limited Buy

MMA

MMC Contrarian Limited

Investment Portfolio:
As at 30 April 2005 MMC's portfolio was comprised of Listed Equities (37%), Hybrids (4%) and Fixed Interest and Cash (59%).

Intelligent investor rates as buy and thinks highly of management team.


Number of shares on issue 31/3/06, 216M with NTA of 112.1 cents (pre tax).

At 91.5 this represents an 18% discount to NTA.

Recommend buying small starting position of 4000 shares, compiling full analysis. If analysis returns good risk reward scenario aim will be to build eventual position of between 10-20% of the funds assets.

As MMC have such a high proportion of funds, 59%, in cash they should be buffeted from any market downturn and if such downturn occurs they will be in a strong position to profit from it.

This is an excellently run investment fund, trading at NTA discount of 17.5% and will instantly give the fund exposure to range of ASX listed companies.

NTA Updates

30 April 2006 – 110.9, order placed at 91.5 for 17.5 discount.

Closing in on longest bull

The current market has been rising for 38 months which is just short of the longest bull market in history.

Wednesday, May 31, 2006

Roc Oil Purchase (ROC ) and interests

We purchased a third position in ROC today at 3.94. Although the price has run up recently while we have been analysing this share, we used patience to buy at 3.94, as we decided to buy when the price was over four dollars.

This position is to establish our interest in the stock and represents a 1/3 of what we currently consider a full position. In many circumstances we will even buy more of a company than a full position, for example we see great value, options trading necessitates a larger position, in established companies with long track records which we are very comfortable holding for 5-20 years.

Buy 1000 ROC at 3.94

Fund currently looking at NAB, MMA, BPC and we have pre-registered for Snowy Hydro.

Wednesday, May 24, 2006

Looking to Buy NAB

Key Dates for NAB
  • 2 June 2006*
    Ex-Dividend Date for 2006 Interim Dividend
  • 8 June 2006*
    Record Date for 2006 Interim Dividend
  • 13 July 2006*
    Payment Date for 2006 Interim Dividend
Closing Price: 35.23

We intend to buy NAB in thrids as part of our long term buy to hold strategy. We have been waiting for a market pull-back and believe now is a good time to by our first third in NAB.

The reasons for this include; the fund plans to ultimately own long term positions in the major banks and find NAB the most attractively priced at the moment. More later.

Friday, May 05, 2006

Why not Argo? MMC Contrarian

The fund decided not to invest in Argo at this point as investors have bid the share price up to NTA of 1.30. We view that as too rich a price to pay for their investing expertise.
The fund is now more interested in MMC Contrarian, which has around a .85 NTA if memory serves me well.

Super strategy full of pitfalls resurfaces


May 03, 2006

AUSTRALIAN financial services regulators have a favourite expression: "If it sounds too good to be true, it often is."

This warning is issued to remind investors to be careful before committing to anything too outlandish. Unfortunately, some people never learn.

When it comes to superannuation, which is a long-term investment with attractive tax concessions, there are plenty of ways to destroy a person's retirement nest egg.

And, with self-managed super funds (SMSFs) more problems can arise because the responsibilities of running a fund properly rest with trustees who must be members.

The Australian Taxation Office has repeatedly told us that if a trustee breaks the rules the fund may face consequences which can include taxing the fund's assets (excluding the fund's undeducted contributions) at 48.5 per cent of the assets of the fund.

An old strategy has resurfaced and before acting on it a trustee should seek some very robust advice.

The strategy is presented as a way of building an investor's superannuation assets via personal borrowings.

How does it work? An investor borrows money and places the money in a private unit trust.

The investor's SMSF also invests in the same unit trust.

With the total monies, the unit trust purchases an investment property.

The investor's borrowings are used to earn income -- which would be paid via distributions from the unit trust -- and therefore interest costs and other expenses associated with the property would probably be tax deductible.

Over the years following, the investor directs all of their compulsory and voluntary employer super contributions into their SMSF.

The SMSF trustee invests these new contributions by buying more units in the unit trust.

The investor would then repay the debt by redeeming their unit holding in the trust (the unit trust has the funds to pay out these redemptions because it has the additional investments made by the SMSF).

Over time, the super fund will become the only unitholder in the trust and if the property was sold then the gain would be taxed at concessional tax rates applying to super funds.

It's no exaggeration to say this strategy is very complicated and it would be very easy to make a mistake at some stage through a lack of vigilance by anyone involved in administering the strategy.

From a superannuation legislation point of view there are at least six issues that have to be addressed before a trustee should implement the strategy.

The first point to note is that a super fund cannot invest in anything unless its investment strategy allows that investment.

Further, the fund's trust deed must also allow the investment.

Thirdly, a specific super law does not allow a super fund to loan money or provide any financial assistance to its members or a member's relatives. In August 2001, the tax office said that a SMSF trustee cannot allow any property it holds directly or indirectly to be used as a security for a borrowing by a member or their relatives.

As a result, the property which is purchased by the unit trust cannot be used by the SMSF member as security for the borrowing they enter into in order to invest in the unit trust.

Also, the SMSF cannot allow the member's units in the trust to be used as security for borrowings.

The member would have to use some other asset as security for the borrowing.

In addition, an agreement would have to be in place between the SMSF and the other unit trust investor stating that the investor will only deal with their unitholding in such a way that would not cause the SMSF to lose its access to tax concessions or cause the trustee to breach any super laws.

Fourthly, some SMSF trustees may be tempted to use this strategy to transfer a property they already personally own into a unit trust and have their SMSF purchase units in the trust. Such a strategy might be seen as a handy way of extracting cash from the SMSF.

This can only happen with business real property. That is, it is always used wholly and exclusively in the running of at least one business.

Furthermore, parties deemed to be related to the SMSF (defined as SMSF members, their relatives or entities controlled by the members or their relatives) would not be allowed to rent the property unless it was business real property.

The only exception to this rule would be the situation where the SMSF's unit trust holding represents less than 5 per cent of the market value of the SMSF's total assets.

If the business real property is owned by a trust or company then that trust or company must not have any borrowings and must only be leasing business real property to SMSF related parties

Finally, we come to the sole purpose test. This states that a super fund must only be run for the purposes allowed by super laws.

The main purpose of running a super fund must be to provide retirement benefits for the fund's members. Would this arrangement be deemed to be an elaborate arrangement to channel super contributions into private hands?

It would be ironic if someone entered into the strategy, got its implementation wrong and was penalised as a result.

Tony Negline specialises in superannuation. He may be contacted at www.allthingsconsidered.biz

SMSF Transfer of personal assets to super

From http://funds.comsec.com.au/Features/Articles/TBC-Articles.asp?ArtId=193

If you have a self-managed super fund (SMSF) and own an asset outside your super, you may be able to transfer ownership of the asset directly into your fund. You’ll then be taking advantage of the 15% tax on earnings that applies to super, rather than paying tax at your marginal tax rate, potentially making a tax saving of 33.5%. The types of assets that can be transferred are limited, and you’ll need to find out whether your asset is one of them.

Even though you will probably have to pay tax on the transfer of ownership of the asset (and sometimes stamp duty), the long-term tax benefits may compensate for the short-term liability. If you’re self-employed and can claim a tax deduction for your super contributions, you can use your asset to make an “in-specie” contribution to super so that the tax deduction reduces the total tax you pay.

Although super funds are not permitted to borrow money to invest, they can access geared exposure to the share market through Regular Instalments.

Thursday, May 04, 2006

Watching NAB Closely

NAB Closed today 4 May at 36.580 down .66 (1.77%)
This is within the range that the Fund has targeted to write PUT options on NAB. The fund will now closely monitor NAB over the coming days and weeks looking for the best entry price. If this is a break of the upward trend caused by a some what unexpected rise in interest rates then NAB could head even lower below 36. The fund believes the share price of the main four banks could all head lower in coming years as the wonderful economic conditions they have enojoyed can't last forever.

Sunday, April 09, 2006

Cash Position Still Large

The fund still sits on $89k cash in bank, or 70% of the funds assets. The trustees recognise that the funds performance may have been better over the last year if their exposure to shares had of been greater; however they note the following:
- Earnings growth has outpaced market growth over the last three years; based on market price verus future earnings the market is now "cheaper" than three years ago.
- The trustees have been evaluating share purchases and simply have been unable to find any shares that they were comfortable buying for the long term, or in a couple instances the shares prices moved to quickly.
- The trustees are currently looking at some shares; including NAB, FLT and MMC.
- We have been looking for better vehicles for the funds cash holdings, but none of the current cash alternatives offer attractive risk to reward at the moment.
- The fund has a very long term view and one year of under performance will not force the trustees in to the market.

Saturday, March 04, 2006

Diversify - why?

Almost everyone says to diversify. I have not put enough thought or study of diversification to know whether it is best for me or not. However, until I do, the easiest path is to follow the wisdom of the masses and diversify.

As a trustee I note the Super Fund is as woefully diversified as can be. One listed company and cash accounts. With 33% of the fund invested it Telstra I feel it necessary to explain this position.
One of the reasons for taking control of our Super was to control diversification across all our long term assets. Under a total assets comparison Telstra makes up under 5% of assets, which is comfortably under our limit of 10%.

Telstra has a complex risk reward scenario, but we hold it to be a good long term buy and dividend paying share for many years to come.

With total fund diversification and assets utilisation in mind the super fund will sell 1 NAB put if NAB is over $36 at options expiration 30 March 2006. Aim will be good price on $36 Put, with $37 Put considered if excellent price over .70 can be gained. As always with Naked Puts the aim is to sell at a price we are happy to buy at, ie getting paid for a limit order.

Wednesday, February 22, 2006

Continue to hold Telstra and buy Argo

We calculate the overall dividend plus franking credits return to our SMSF is 12.1%. This is an excellent return and we are happy to remain long Telstra. The major risk to this investment is a reduced dividend pay out.

Trustees will further investigate Argo Investments with view to buy a stake to allow participation in share purchase scheme.

Saturday, February 18, 2006

Investment in Argo Investment

The fund will make an inital small investment in Argo Investments shares. The initial investment will be to facilitate participation in their Share Repurchase plan and other attractive benefits as listed below.

Low Management Costs
No management fees are charged by Argo and being a listed company, only normal stockbroker charges apply when shares are purchased and sold. For the year ended 30 June, 2005 total operating costs were 0.15% of total assets at market value.

Franked Dividends
Argo pays dividends in March and September each year. Imputation credits on dividends received by Argo are passed on through the fully franked dividends paid to Argo shareholders, with all shareholders benefiting from the associated tax credits. Certain Australian share holders can also claim a tax benefit where the dividend is sourced from a LIC capital gain.

Share Purchase Plan
Argo has a Share Purchase Plan which enables shareholders to invest up to $5,000 a year in additional shares, currently at a 2.5% discount off the market price. Participation in the SPP is entirely at the option of the shareholders and no transactional costs apply.

Dividend Reinvestment Plan
Argo has a Dividend Reinvestment Plan, which is currently offered to eligible shareholders at a 2.5% discount off the market price. Participation in the DRP is again entirely optional and no transactional costs will apply.

Share Issues
Argo also has a history of making attractively priced new issues of shares to our existing shareholders.

Combined with their outperformance of All Ords Accumulation INdex for 5,10,15 and 20 years.

Initial investment of between $2-$5k will be made and then a regular investment of $400-$800 per month to dollar cost average in to the stock.

Wednesday, February 08, 2006

BHP position not taken

Due to circumstances we did not sell the BHP puts as planned on Monday 23rd Jan. The stock price then took off from a low of 24.23 on Monday to peak at 26.63 a week later and hovered in the low 26 range until today, when gravity and sanity returned with the stock dropping over 5%. After reading comments by the Intelligent Investor we will now closely watch both BHP and Rio Tinto for an entry or attractive Put position.

Thursday, February 02, 2006

Holding Telstra

The Trust will continue to hold Telstra. The latest pop in share price on news of T3 in encouraging that the trustees original investment thesis will be fulfilled. The trust will be able to sell some of it's holding over the average paid and will have netted the attractive dividends for that period. Despite being in the troubled Telecommunications industry the trustees had believed if as the largest shareholder the government had known any information that would have led them to believe $5.25 for not a realistic price for T3 then they would have stated that and lowered their price accordingly. However, despite having the knowledge they did not lower their price target. This resulted in the Trusts purchase of a volume and portfolio percentage of the shares far greater than they would normally allocate to an individual share. The other contributing factor was the announcement of the special dividend combining to form $.40 a year in franked dividend. Was that a bribe to unload shares by the company?

At any rate the dividend has been better than interest and as stated the trustees believe they will get to sell above the average price, some time in the future. They will look at call options on Telstra.